The expected output of this consultancy will contribute to outcome 1.4 of the project, “For two pilot countries, produce substantive assessment tool for risk analysis and modelling debt sustainability conditions in the context of improving fiscal space and financing for the SDGs.” and will also provide valuable input to the forthcoming report: Debt and Fiscal Policy Outlook in the Arab Region.
The consultant will deliver the following:
a) Update of five single-country models and econometric software codes;
b) Excel files of the results of simulations representing:
o The business as usual and forecasting scenarios
o Simulations and projections
c) Capacity development training (five-days) on using macroeconomic models for simulations.
All outputs will remain intellectual property of ESCWA.
Remotely
2 Months
The consultancy is an extension to the on-going work on producing single country models. The consultant will produce updates of the models for Bahrain, Oman, Mauritania, Sudan, and Lebanon, based on the modified WEFM single country model structure developed for ESCWA member States.
The five single country models will be analyzed for simulations and forecasting related to enhancing social expenditure and their reallocation, debt sustainability, fiscal-monetary coordination, and their impact on growth in post-Covid period, which will contribute to updating follow up of scenarios on enhancing social expenditure and fiscal sustainability.
The consultant will provide a capacity development training on application of the modelling and simulations using E-Views software in at least one member states, such as in Bahrain.
In this context, the consultant will be required to:
• Capacity development training (five-days) on using macroeconomic models for simulations relating to social expenditure and fiscal sustainability and producing/tailoring the model taking into account oil-rich countries contexts such as Bahrain and Oman.
• Modify the single country models and provide up-to-date scenarios for five countries (Mauritania, Sudan, Lebanon and updates on Jordan and Tunisia) (with updated WEFM model of DESA, as available in the first quarter of 2023), in discussion with ESCWA staff:
o Scenario forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators
o Simulations including alternative fiscal policy choices (that could improve allocative efficiency of social expenditure and have a higher multiplier effect on growth)
o Simulations using policy mix (such as considering rules on fiscal / debt/ inflation)
• Other relevant scenarios.
Advanced university degree (Master's degree or equivalent) in economics, econometrics, or related field is required. A first-level university degree in combination with qualifying experience may be accepted in lieu of the advanced university degree.
All candidates must submit a copy of the required educational degree. Incomplete applications will not be reviewed.
A minimum of fifteen years of progressively responsible experience in analyzing macroeconomic policy issues, particularly macro econometric modeling and forecasting exercises, is required.
Publication in reputed journals in this field is desirable.
Familiarity with the World Economic and Forecasting model is desirable.
Knowledge of economic development issues of Arab countries is an advantage.
Languages English and French are the working languages of the United Nations Secretariat; and Arabic is a working language of ESCWA.
For this position, fluency in English is required.
Note: “Fluency” equals a rating of ‘fluent’ in all four areas (speak, read, write, and understand) and “Knowledge of” equals a rating of ‘confident’ in two of the four areas.
THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.